"In July 2020, China's automobile growth rate will usher in a'V'-shaped rebound. It is predicted that the retail volume of my country's passenger car market will be 1.740 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% ​​and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%." Guangzhou Wilson Information Technology Co., Ltd. Company analyst Jiang Chenghui predicts.

　　July 2019 was the first month after the National VI standard was switched. After the “Tearful Sale” of National V models from May to June, automobile retail sales rose abnormally in June last year, which led to the increase in sales in the third quarter of last year. Demand was overdrawn and car sales plummeted in July.

　　"In the case of a low comparison base, it is expected that a substantial positive growth will be achieved in July 2020, but the actual market retail sales may be in a stable recovery stage." Jiang Chenghui analysis.

　　Data show that in May 2020, automobile retail sales were 1.584 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%, indicating a relatively satisfactory growth rate from the previous month. With the implementation of the transmission effects of various auto market stimulus policies, the pent-up demand during the previous epidemic was gradually released, the rigid demand continued to recover, and the market returned to stability. However, due to the strong promotion and clearing of national V models under the influence of the national VI standard switchover in the same period last year, retail sales began to rise in May 2019, so the year-on-year growth rate in May 2020 did not increase.

　　With the implementation of various policies to promote automobile consumption and the gradual recovery of the macro economy, consumer confidence has gradually increased after the epidemic. Under the environment of consumption upgrades and the continuous decline of luxury car prices, the luxury car market retails rapidly recovered, and the year-on-year growth level was significantly higher. Joint venture and independent market. In May, the luxury car market achieved a positive growth of 18.9%. It has achieved double-digit positive growth against the trend for two consecutive months in a year-on-year decline in the overall market, and the trend of share expansion is obvious.

　　This year's National VI standard switch postponement for half a year, to a certain extent eliminates the impact of policy fluctuations on sales peaks, and there will be no early consumption due to price promotions. At the same time, with the arrival of the deadline for the switchover of National V and National VI standards, the promotion of National V models in regions that have not yet switched to National VI in the second half of the year will gradually increase, which may effectively boost sales growth in the second half of the year.

　　The implementation of the policy of easing the quotas for purchase restriction cities, it is expected that potential demand may be effectively released. Under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the retail sales of the automobile market has fallen sharply. The central and many local governments have actively introduced a series of incentive policies to rescue the market. In order to stimulate consumers to buy cars, more policy "opinions" issued in the early stage have been implemented. For regions with restricted purchases, “license restriction” is the biggest obstacle for consumers to purchase cars. Therefore, relaxation of purchase restrictions has become one of the important ways to release car purchase demand.

　　Up to now, except for Beijing's purchase restriction index regulation, which is under consultation, the remaining 7 purchase restriction regions have confirmed their incremental targets for 2020. According to the release index statistics of the purchase restriction regions, it is expected that a total of 265,000 fuel vehicles will be released in 2020.

　　"After the epidemic, the market environment has stabilized. The demand that was suppressed by the epidemic in the first quarter was basically released in the second quarter, and inventory pressure has also been better digested with the recovery of market retail. Wholesale volume continued to rise steadily in June and entered in July. In the traditional off-season, under the influence of factors such as seasonal decline and high-temperature holidays from manufacturers, the growth rate of the batch car market in July will slow down slightly, with a slight decrease from the previous month." Wilson predicts. (Yu Na)